It's not even the middle of December and it already feels like it's been a long winter. A message from one of my text group(s) of superintendents first pinged this morning at 5:27. The inquiry was to take the pulse on the forecast for today. In the following interim period, there were four messages amongst the group before I responded at 7:01 with the tongue in cheek response, "Is it spring yet"? In the epoch leading up to this post, there have been countless messages between this group that represent those of us in the Cedar Valley and another group that reaches a bit further into our rural areas. (Perhaps they are not countless, I am just too worn out at this point to count them! In any event, I'm sure you get the point.)
My first year as superintendent was 2010, and when hired I shared with Ann that no matter what, we had to be moved before winter arrived. I knew it would be difficult to make weather related decisions when living an hour away. We ended up moving the day before Thanksgiving, and that evening winter arrived. It didn't really let up until springtime. I'd have to go back in the records to make certain but if memory serves me correct, we had double digit snow days that school year. Since then, I can't recall a season since where it has been as active as it has been so far this year.
It's been a decade and a half, and not a lot has changed when it comes to making these type of weather related calls. You'd think with such leaps and bounds in technology our ability to pinpoint when it is going to start snowing, the type of snow to expect, and the volume that will land in our driveway; would be much more precise. Except that isn't the case.
While the timing of each winter weather event dictates the lead time for notification, we do our best to communicate these decisions in a timely manner. Believe me, I understand the stress disruptions to the school day can cause for our families, especially those with young children. My goal is always to be both timely and firm. In other words, if I say that we are going to have a delay the last thing I want to do is pull the rug out from under you and change to a cancellation. If that may be the case, I'll try and tell you in advance. That is why the message from 12/10/2025 included the 'coded phrase' additional updates will be provided no later than 8:00 a.m. In this instance, there was a chance the delay could have become a cancellation. Understanding that lead time is important for you, if it is possible to make those announcements the night before we'll do that also. However, as some of my colleagues learned from the last event, there is risk in that as well.
So, a bit about the process. Superintendents in Iowa typically start receiving briefings from the National Weather Service (NWS) a couple of days prior to the event. I know from experience that a briefing 48 hours in advance of a storm is going to go through substantial changes before finally arriving at our doorstep. Then, the NWS provides additional updates in about 12 hour increments. About a day before, we are able to get on a Zoom call with the NWS to hear about the latest forecast, storm trajectory, and accumulation predictions. Shortly thereafter, the messaging groups become quite active.
I have two active messaging groups. The primary one is the the superintendents in the Cedar Valley and probably has the most relevancy to our decision making process. The other reaches a bit further out into the rural areas that impact and touch the district. This is helpful to sometimes get a feel for what is going on at the edges of the district.
As you might imagine, superintendents talk a lot in the lead up about timing, plans for school, and whether or not the activity schedule will also be impacted. Pay attention to the chyron scrolling at the bottom of the screen the next time we have a weather event and you are watching the local news. More often than not, you will see school cancellations or delays all begin to populate at roughly the same time. While these are local decisions and conditions in one district may differ from the other, effort is made to coordinate announcements. Superintendents are regular people to and, no one wants to be the first and no one wants to be the holdout!
The day of the event starts early, usually no later than 5:00 a.m. Every superintendent I know is physically out in the snow testing road conditions. No one is shy about calling or texting a colleague before 5:00 a.m. We are all up. Our district is roughly 57 square miles, which geographically speaking is a relatively small footprint. Even so, it is not realistic to drive every road. My route is somewhat predictable. I do that by design so if I get stuck (it's happened) or go in the ditch (not yet), I can call and have someone come pull me out with pretty precise directions to where I'm at. Typically I'll head south on Holmes, sometimes all the way to Eagle (a bit rarer), West Griffith across the highway and up Lincoln ending at Hansen's. Then I decide whether or not I'm going to head down Watters Road eastbound or west. If east, then I'll head up to Grundy County Road (I don't do this as much anymore since that road is now paved. I can tell you some stories about when it wasn't!) Once on Watters I like to head northbound on Hollis. Sometimes I'll turn east on Strayer, but if not I'll pick that up on the return leg of the trip which will include a southbound traverse on Metz before intersecting Hudson road and heading back home. While this route far from covers everything, it does provide a pretty good representation of road conditions in the district.
Most of the time, I have a pretty good sense of where we're headed by the time I get to the intersection of Griffith Road and Holmes (yes this is pretty early in my trek). But, to do my due diligence I'll typically run the whole route and consult with my colleagues before ultimately sending out those text alerts our students are so eager to receive and notifying local media.
Early on I used to perseverate about making the right call. In those years long since passed, I actually still worry about it, although not quite so much. It is very satisfying when I get it right. At the same time, I kick myself when I get it wrong. I have to remind myself that we can only make decisions based on the information we have at the time, and the forecast that is provided to us by the meteorologists. Frankly, I don't think it matters too much which meteorologist one subscribes to; none of them are perfect.
That's about it! As you have read this post today I think the takeaway is that whatever processes and procedures we have in place, there is always an exception to the rule! Oh, and as I look out the window in the central office.....I see that it's snowing.
